Winter has only just begun, yet large parts of northern and central India are already experiencing an unusually sharp and early chill. Minimum temperatures in Delhi, Punjab, Rajasthan, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar have dropped between three and five degrees below normal. Dense fog has blanketed highways and rail routes, reduced visibility in major airports, and stretched travel times across cities. These disruptions, combined with an early surge in cold wave days, signal that this is not merely the onset of a routine winter. Instead, India is witnessing a deeper, more persistent cold spell that demands careful examination and timely action.
What Exactly Is a Cold Wave and Why Does It Matter?
The IMD defines a cold wave as a day when:
- Minimum temperatures drop to 10°C or less in plains, or
- Temperatures fall 4.5°C to 6.4°C below normal, or
Temperatures dip to ≤4°C, triggering a severe cold wave at ≤2°C.
In simpler terms, a cold wave is not just “winter being winter.” It is a statistically abnormal temperature drop that increases risk for vulnerable populations and disrupts economic activity. Cold waves behave much like heatwaves, they are quiet, persistent, and dangerous.
The Science Behind the Chill: Why India Is So Cold This Year
Several atmospheric factors have combined this season to push India into sharper cold swings.
One of the strongest influences is the ongoing La Niña phase in the Pacific Ocean, which alters global wind circulation patterns. During La Niña winters, India typically experiences stronger northerly winds that transport cold, dry air from the Himalayas deep into the plains. This leads to colder nights, more intense fog formation, and an overall drop in temperatures across northern and central regions.
This atmospheric setup is amplified by clearer-than-usual skies at night. With no cloud cover to trap heat, Earth loses warmth more rapidly after sunset, causing temperatures to slide further by dawn. High-pressure systems, often described as a “cold dome” remain stationed over northwest India during this period, preventing warmer air from the oceans from mixing with the cold continental winds. The subtropical jet stream, which typically flows farther north, is also dipping southwards this season, pulling cold winds deeper into central India. Some global studies associate such jet stream behaviour with broader climate variability, including Arctic warming. While cold waves are natural events, these atmospheric shifts raise questions about how climate change may be influencing the frequency and intensity of winter extremes in India.
The IMD’s seasonal outlook suggests that the coming weeks may bring more cold wave days, especially through December and early January. Dense fog episodes are likely to be more frequent, particularly across the Indo-Gangetic plains and eastern India, while night-time cooling in central India is expected to intensify. This points toward a winter that will be longer and harsher than average, with wide-ranging implications for daily life and economic activity.
Who Is Hit the Hardest? A Socio-Economic Look
The effects of severe cold are not uniform across the country. Outdoor workers, such as construction labourers, sanitation staff, street vendors, transport workers, and delivery personnel, bear the heaviest burden. Many spend long hours in the open with limited thermal protection. Cold stress can induce hypothermia, reduce dexterity (increasing the risk of workplace accidents), and heighten susceptibility to respiratory infections. For daily-wage earners, missing even a few days of work due to illness means a direct loss of income, making the cold wave a livelihood crisis as much as a health risk.
Agriculture, too, becomes vulnerable when temperatures fall sharply. Early-season frost can damage wheat, mustard, potatoes, peas, and other rabi crops that require stable winter temperatures. A sudden dip in night-time warmth affects germination, slows vegetative growth, and can reduce yield. Frost damage is especially severe in low-lying areas and farms with sandy soil, where ground heat dissipates quickly. For small and marginal farmers, already coping with erratic monsoon behaviour and unseasonal heat in March, this adds yet another layer of climate uncertainty.
Urban poor and homeless populations face the most immediate danger, as exposure to extreme cold can be fatal. Indian cities report hundreds of cold-related deaths each winter, particularly across Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Bihar. Homeless shelters remain insufficient, and many lack basic insulation or heating. Children, the elderly, and people with pre-existing respiratory or cardiac illnesses are also at high risk. Cold exacerbates asthma and COPD, strains the cardiovascular system, and weakens immunity. For school-going children, early morning hours become especially challenging; during severe fog days, delayed timings or temporary closures often become necessary.
The transportation sector experiences significant disruptions as well. Fog-induced delays interfere with rail schedules, historically affecting over a thousand trains a day during extreme fog periods, while flights face diversions or cancellations due to low visibility. Highways turn hazardous, impacting everything from inter-state goods movement to agriculture supply chains. These delays ripple into economic losses, with perishable goods, e-commerce deliveries, and essential services being particularly affected. The energy sector also strains under increased winter demand. Households consume more electricity for heating, while states dependent on limited grid capacity face peak load challenges.
How India Should Prepare: A Policy Lens
In this context, India must shift towards a more systematic approach to cold wave preparedness. Just as heat action plans have become a cornerstone of climate resilience in over 200 districts and cities, cold wave action plans need to be institutionalised across vulnerable regions. Strengthening early warning systems is fundamental. Weather alerts must be hyper-local, multilingual, and delivered across multiple channels – SMS, community radio, local governance networks, and digital platforms, so that citizens, farmers, and outdoor workers receive timely, actionable information.
City and district administrations should develop dedicated cold wave response protocols. These should include adjustments in school timings, shelter availability, fog-response mechanisms for roads and transport, and the establishment of public heating points in high-risk neighbourhoods.
The needs of outdoor workers must be prioritised through delayed morning shifts during severe cold days, provision of protective winter gear at worksites, and access to warm shelters and hot meals.
Agriculture advisories must be tailored to specific crop types, soil conditions, and frost-risk zones, promoting protective irrigation practices, mulching, and the adoption of more frost-resistant crop varieties. Weather-based insurance schemes, which trigger payouts based on temperature thresholds, can provide financial cushioning for small farmers.
Infrastructure and housing also require rethinking. Many Indian homes, particularly in northern and eastern regions, are not built for thermal comfort. Low-cost insulation measures, slum upgrading programmes that include weather-proofing, and winterised public shelters can significantly reduce cold-related health risks.
Likewise, the public health system must prepare for seasonal surges in respiratory infections, especially among children and the elderly. Hospitals need clear protocols for treating hypothermia and frost-related conditions, alongside public awareness campaigns encouraging safe winter practices.
Community-led action plays an equally important role. Local NGOs, youth groups, and resident associations can map vulnerable populations, organise blanket distributions, and assist in managing crowded transport hubs and hospitals during dense fog days. Such decentralised, compassionate interventions often bridge crucial gaps that formal systems cannot cover quickly enough.
India’s Cold Wave Moment: A Warning and an Opportunity
India’s current cold wave is a timely reminder of the growing complexity of the country’s climate risks. We increasingly live in a world where heatwaves, erratic monsoons, extreme rainfall, and sharper winter drops coexist, not as isolated events but as interconnected climate shocks. Cold waves may not dominate headlines like heatwaves, yet they are equally disruptive and deserve the same level of planning, investment, and policy attention.
At CEED, our work on climate resilience, energy transitions, and evidence-based planning underscores a simple but urgent truth: extreme weather is no longer a seasonal inconvenience. It is a developmental challenge that affects health, livelihoods, infrastructure, and economic productivity. Building resilience to cold waves is not just about staying warm; it is about creating systems that protect the most vulnerable, ensure continuity of essential services, and strengthen India’s preparedness for a future defined by climatic uncertainty.
